HAMNET Report 21st April 2024

Artificial Intelligence is making its presence felt in thousands of different ways. It helps scientists make sense of vast troves of data; it helps detect financial fraud; it drives our cars; it feeds us music suggestions; its chatbots drive us crazy. And it’s only getting started.

Are we capable of understanding how quickly AI will continue to develop? And if the answer is no, does that constitute the Great Filter?

The Fermi Paradox is the discrepancy between the apparent high likelihood of advanced civilizations existing and the total lack of evidence that they do exist. Many solutions have been proposed for why the discrepancy exists. One of the ideas is the “Great Filter.”

The Great Filter is a hypothesized event or situation that prevents intelligent life from becoming interplanetary and interstellar and even leads to its demise. Think climate change, nuclear war, asteroid strikes, supernova explosions, plagues, or any number of other things from the rogue’s gallery of cataclysmic events.

Or how about the rapid development of AI?

A new paper in Acta Astronautica explores the idea that Artificial Intelligence becomes Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) and that ASI is the Great Filter. The paper’s title is “Is Artificial Intelligence the Great Filter that makes advanced technical civilizations rare in the universe?” The author is Michael Garrett from the Department of Physics and Astronomy at the University of Manchester.

Some think the Great Filter prevents technological species like ours from becoming multi-planetary. That’s bad because a species is at greater risk of extinction or stagnation with only one home. According to Garrett, a species is in a race against time without a backup planet. “It is proposed that such a filter emerges before these civilizations can develop a stable, multi-planetary existence, suggesting the typical longevity (L) of a technical civilization is less than 200 years,” Garrett writes.

If true, that can explain why we detect no techno-signatures or other evidence of ETI’s (Extra-terrestrial Intelligences.) What does that tell us about our own technological trajectory? If we face a 200-year constraint, and if it’s because of ASI, where does that leave us? Garrett underscores the “…critical need to quickly establish regulatory frameworks for AI development on Earth and the advancement of a multi-planetary society to mitigate such existential threats.”

Many scientists and other thinkers say we’re on the cusp of enormous transformation. AI is just beginning to transform how we do things; much of the transformation is behind the scenes. AI seems poised to eliminate jobs for millions, and when paired with robotics, the transformation seems almost unlimited. That’s a fairly obvious concern.

It seems to me though, that the very restriction we might face from Artificial Super Intelligence, might also protect us from those three–legged green creatures from “War of the Worlds”!

Huntnewsnu.com tells us this week that the Boston 26.2 mile (42.195km) marathon held on 15th April attracted about 9000 volunteer helpers, of whom about 300 were radio amateurs.

The volunteers were responsible for maintaining constant radio communications, connecting all points of the course with a main radio hub, Boston Fire, EMS and police.

Radio communications provided important assistance to the other marathon volunteers, said Jonah Lefkoff, a third-year computer engineering and computer science combined major [at Northeastern University] and vice president of NU Wireless. Most of the volunteers in attendance do boots-on-the-ground work, like managing hydration stations or medical tents.

“The value of the marathon, to novice amateur radio operators, is it offers real world experience,” said Maggie Heaney, a third-year electrical engineering and music combined major and director of outreach for NU Wireless. “We treat [the marathon] as a good opportunity for especially younger ham radio operators to get out and use these skills to help the general populace or other outside groups such as the Boston Athletic Association.”

All of the amateur radio operator volunteers from Northeastern University attended a training session in Framingham in February to learn more about the marathon course and their assignments. There are four segments that radio operator volunteers can serve on: start, finish, course and transportation. 

During the 2013 Boston Marathon bombing, radio volunteers played a vital role in coordinating and carrying out an emergency response, Lefkoff said. A central component of being an amateur radio operator [volunteer] is being knowledgeable about the safeguards that are in place in case something fails or an emergency occurs. 

I’m sure all HAMNET South Africa members resonate with those opinions.

A quick note about HAMNET Western Cape’s Internet link at our ZS1DCC station at the City of Cape Town’s Disaster Risk Management Centre: I’m pleased to tell you that the fibre link has been restored after several months, and we are now able to offer relays automatically from ZS1DCC, of Cape Town Club bulletins, and HAMNET bulletins on Echolink, via ZS1DCC-R, and also on 80 metres 3770kHz LSB. So if you wondered what happened, wonder no more, the relays are back! Feel free to listen to the Cape Town bulletin on ZS1DCC-R on Sunday mornings at 08h30, and the HAMNET bulletin at 19h30 (both times CAT) on Wednesday evenings.

It has been a very pleasant experience to meet with and greet all our old friends in amateur radio, and of course HAMNET, at the SARL Convention this weekend. The Cape Town Amateur Radio Centre is to be congratulated on organising a very successful weekend.

A pre-AGM get-together on Friday evening got the ball rolling and the atmosphere warmer, and I enjoyed saying hello to all the people in ham radio I admire. Then the AGM at a venue I have visited many times for congresses was successfully run without much controversy, and I congratulate those elected to the Council of the SARL for the forthcoming year.

That same venue has never disappointed me from their kitchen, and the spread was up to their usual standard at the Awards Dinner, while we listened to the leaders of council as they greeted us, and presented the annual awards. Thanks also to Brian ZS6YZ for his  presentation on our centenary history collection.

And a huge congratulations must go to Brian Jacobs ZS6YZ, our Deputy National Director, on being awarded the HAMNET Shield. I can’t think of a more worthy recipient. Actually I didn’t know he hadn’t already received the award! Well done Brian, and thank you for all your contributions to date.

Then further congratulations are due to HAMNET members from all regions, who were awarded Jack Twine awards, namely: Sybrand ZS1L, Peter ZS1OA, Danie ZS1OSS, Colin ZS1RS, Gawie ZS5R, Adele ZS5APT and Syd ZS5AYC, Awie ZS6AVI, Hentie ZS6HPL, Johan ZS6LD, Werner ZS6AR, Tommie ZS6THM and Lizette ZS6ZET.

SARL Certificates of Recognition for services to HAMNET were also awarded to Sydney ZS5SID, Louis ZS5LS, Deon ZS6DAB, Chanette ZS6CAC, Wynand ZS6JD, Theo ZS6JFW and Neels ZS6NR.

Thank you to you all for your contribution to the smooth running of HAMNET. My apologies if I seemed to be reading out a long shopping list there, but all awardees are worthy of thanks!

This is Dave Reece ZS1DFR reporting for HAMNET in South Africa.